Bitcoin’s Bearish Pattern: A 2019 Comparison

A popular crypto analyst warns that Bitcoin (BTC) may be repeating a bearish pattern observed in 2019 for a crucial reason.

In a recent YouTube video, analyst Benjamin Cowen shared insights with his 887,000 subscribers, emphasizing a historic correlation between Bitcoin and Federal Reserve monetary policy. This suggests that the leading crypto asset may face challenges in reclaiming the bull market support band, similar to events in 2019.

The bull market support band consists of the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).

> “I think the reason why that 2019 comparison comes back to haunt Bitcoin fairly frequently is because of the monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Remember, during 2019, there was also this ongoing quantitative tightening, which is also what we’ve seen this cycle as well…

> These drops below the bull market support band (from September to December 2019) occurred as the Fed pivoted monetary policy amid economic weakening.”

Recently, forecasts from the Atlanta Fed suggested negative GDP in Q1, which adds to factors such as inflation and tariffs contributing to Bitcoin’s potential drops below the support.

However, Cowen believes Bitcoin could reclaim the bull market support band if the S&P 500 recovers following last week’s substantial stock sell-off.

> “The best-case scenario for the S&P, in my opinion, is that the local low has already occurred. There are historical examples where a local low occurs around mid-March. If you’re trying to figure out when Bitcoin might rally back to the bull market support band, it will depend on when the S&P 500 finds a local low.”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $83,967, reflecting a 1.9% increase over the last 24 hours.