U.S. Crude Oil and Fuel Stockpiles Expected to Decline
(Reuters) – U.S. crude oil and fuel stockpiles are anticipated to have fallen last week, according to a preliminary Reuters poll conducted on Monday.
Three analysts estimated that, on average, crude inventories decreased by approximately 2 million barrels for the week ending Dec. 20.
This poll was carried out prior to a report from the American Petroleum Institute scheduled for 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) on Tuesday, and a separate report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which is expected at 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT) on Friday.
Due to the Christmas holiday, the EIA's report, typically released on Wednesday, has been delayed until Friday.
According to the EIA, crude inventories fell by 934,000 barrels to 421 million barrels for the week ending Dec. 13, contrasting with analysts' expectations of a 1.6 million barrel decline.
Forecast vs Actual
| Type | REUTERS FORECAST | ACTUAL | PREVIOUS WEEK | YR-AGO CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude | -2.0 MLN | 421 | -0.9 MLN | -7.1 MLN |
| Distillate | -1.1 MLN | 118.2 | -3.2 MLN | 0.7 MLN |
| Gasoline | -2.7 MLN | 222 | 2.3 MLN | -0.7 MLN |
| Refinery Runs | -0.4 PCT PT | 91.8% | -0.6 PCT PT | 0.9 PCT PT |
| NatGas Storage | -100 BCF | -94 BCF | (FOUR FORECASTS) |
Analysts' Predictions
Analysts also predicted a drop of 2.7 million barrels in gasoline stockpiles last week, alongside a decrease of 1.1 million barrels in distillate inventories, which comprise diesel and heating oil.
The refinery utilization rate was projected to have dropped by 0.4 percentage point, from 91.8% of total capacity in the previous week, according to the poll. All figures for stocks are measured in millions of barrels, while changes in refinery rates are represented in percentage points.
Analyst Estimates
| Organization | Crude | Distillate | Gasoline | Refinery Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price Futures Group | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -1.0 |
| Ritterbusch Associates | -2.0 | 1.9 | -1.0 | -0.4 |
| Rystad Energy | -0.6 | -1.1 | -2.7 | 0.3 |
Comments (0)