Trump’s Election Odds on Polymarket

Over the weekend, Donald Trump’s odds on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket spiked from 44% to 49%, putting the former President in a virtual dead heat with his rival, Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris’s odds have concurrently plummeted from 54% to 49%, though she maintains a slight lead.

Polymarket users have bet over $630,000,000 on the outcome of the national race, along with millions more in smaller markets focused on swing states and related outcomes.

Curiously, Trump’s increase in odds on Polymarket contrasts with recent polls appearing to favor Harris. The latest data from Rasmussen Research, which has faced accusations of bias, shows Harris leading in critical swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. RealClearPolitics’ average of national polls has Harris up by 1.5 points, while The Economist suggests a 2.7-point advantage.

Other prediction markets have not reflected Polymarket’s increase in Trump’s odds. Betfair, the second-largest market with around $67,000,000 in bets, shows Kamala up by approximately 5 points. Meanwhile, PredictIt has Harris ahead by around 10 points.

Mathematical models also illustrate Harris holding her lead. Nate Silver’s election forecast model shows Harris with a 53.5% chance of winning the electoral college, compared to Trump’s 45.9%. Silver notes that the race is essentially a 50/50 split, albeit with Harris having a slightly stronger position. The Economist forecasts Harris winning 272 electoral votes to Trump’s 266.

Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at the New York Times, remarked on the swing in polls, noting, “In May, we had Trump ahead by five points across the battleground states. Right now, we have Harris ahead by two, so it’s a big seven-point swing.” He indicated that Harris experienced notable gains among young, nonwhite voters, and women, along with some improvement among men and white voters.

Polymarket’s open interest has recently rebounded from a significant drop earlier last week, marking the largest single-day decline in its history, as reported by The Block. This month, over forty thousand users have already engaged with the site, which restricts U.S. residents from trading.