UBS Forecasts Tesla's Q4 2024 Deliveries

UBS stated on Monday that it anticipates Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will announce its Q4 2024 delivery numbers on January 2, projecting around 510,000 units. This figure represents a 5% year-over-year increase and a 10% quarter-over-quarter rise.

While UBS's estimate is slightly below the Visible Alpha consensus of 512,000, it aligns with investor expectations, which range from 500,000 to 510,000.

UBS analysts commented, "Given the AI-driven narrative on the stock, we don't believe the delivery results will be as meaningful as in the past," highlighting the reduced significance of these figures on Tesla's stock performance compared to prior periods.

Energy Storage Segment

Attention is also on Tesla's energy storage segment, where UBS forecasts deployments of 9.1 GWh for the quarter, marking a 32% sequential increase. This estimate is close to Visible Alpha’s projection of 9.6 GWh. However, UBS noted that energy storage deployments tend to be "lumpy," making predictions less reliable.

After the delivery report, focus will shift to Tesla's earnings call at the end of January. UBS pointed out that investor interest is likely to be on Elon Musk’s comments regarding 2025 guidance and AI developments, rather than just financial metrics.

2025 Growth Targets

For 2025, Tesla aims for 20-30% unit growth, estimating 2.2-2.4 million units, which exceeds UBS and consensus forecasts of 1.9 million and 2.0 million, respectively. New models, including a lower-priced vehicle expected early in the year and a revamped Model Y, are anticipated to boost these numbers.

Regional Performance Trends

UBS noted varying regional performances: steady growth in China due to promotions, softness in Europe from slowed exports, and flat deliveries in the U.S. Potential changes to EV tax credits could affect near-term U.S. demand.