Tesla's Q4 2024 Delivery Expectations

Investing.com — Tesla’s fourth-quarter 2024 delivery figures, while expected to hit a record high, are unlikely to significantly move the stock, according to a note from Barclays (LON:BARC).

Analysts at the bank estimate Q4 deliveries at approximately 515,000 units, slightly above the consensus estimate of roughly 511,000 units, representing a 6% year-over-year increase.

Barclays highlighted that despite the impressive delivery numbers, they hold limited weight in shaping Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)'s current narrative.

> "Investors overwhelmingly agree that the importance of this Q4 volume print is relatively lower than normal,” the bank stated.

They further added that Tesla’s strong momentum in recent months has been primarily driven by long-term opportunities in autonomous driving and artificial intelligence, rather than short-term delivery metrics.

Despite the estimated Q4 delivery beat, Barclays's forecast for Tesla’s full-year 2024 sales at around 1.81 million units aligns with 2023, falling slightly short of the company's guidance for year-over-year growth.

However, Barclays noted that “a slight near-term volume miss would likely do little to dampen Tesla's AV/AI push,” especially with the planned launch of "Unsupervised FSD" in 2025.

Barclays also pointed to Tesla’s planned low-cost model, known as "Model 2.5," expected to launch in the first half of 2025, as a key factor supporting the company’s growth outlook.

CEO Elon Musk has suggested 20-30% year-over-year delivery growth in 2025, which Barclays believes would alleviate concerns arising from Q4 figures.

The analysts noted, "Increased confidence on 2025 volumes would likely mute any modest concerns that emerge post-Q4 deliveries."

While the Q4 results are expected to maintain Tesla’s narrative momentum, Barclays emphasized that the stock’s recent rally—+68% post-election as compared to the S&P 500’s +2.6%—reflects positive sentiment on Tesla's long-term opportunities along with impacts from technical factors.