Carney’s Ascendancy in Canadian Politics

Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has recently won the leadership contest for the Liberal Party, replacing Justin Trudeau. His odds of winning the next federal election have significantly increased, now standing at 49%, a rise from 26% a month ago, according to Polymarket bettors.

In comparison, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre sees his chances dip to 51%, down from 72% in February. The next federal election is scheduled for October 20, 2025.

However, should the opposition, comprising the Conservatives and NDP, vote against the minority Liberal government on a confidence motion after Parliament resumes on March 24, an election could be triggered before the scheduled date.

Carney’s increased support is mirrored in recent polling data from Nanos Research, which shows that the Conservatives now hold just a single point advantage over the Liberals—down from a 16-point lead a month ago. This shift is largely attributed to trade-related concerns from the U.S., with many Canadians favoring Carney’s background in business and central banking.

This scenario contrasts with the U.S. election a year prior, where prediction markets consistently favored then-Republican candidate Donald Trump over his Democratic adversaries, only to lead to an unexpected outcome.

Crypto on the Canadian Campaign Trail?

Cryptocurrency does not appear to be a significant issue in the Canadian electoral landscape currently. While Poilievre owns a Canadian-issued Bitcoin ETF and has expressed positive views on blockchain and crypto, the bulk of the campaign discourse is focused on trade issues. Meanwhile, Carney, who has had mixed views on crypto during his time as Bank of England governor, has not addressed the topic since becoming Liberal leader.