The Economy and the 2024 Presidential Election

"It’s the economy, stupid." Political consultant Jim Carville’s famed quip from 1992 continues to resonate in U.S. presidential elections, especially with the imminent 2024 race.

Americans vote with their wallets. A recent survey by Investing.com reveals that 83% of investors believe the upcoming election will significantly or moderately impact financial markets, closely mirroring the 86% from the 2020 survey.

Candidates and Investor Trust

According to a survey of 1,117 Investing.com users conducted from October 8-18, 2024, former President Donald Trump currently holds the edge among investors. 61% believe his victory would positively impact the stock market, attributing this confidence to his business background.

Thomas Monteiro, a senior analyst at Investing.com, explains, "The ghost of price rises still plays a key role in the average American's daily life… Consumer credit is at a record high of $5.1 trillion."

Notably, 23% now believe a Harris victory would be best for financial markets, an increase from the 16% confidence in Biden back in 2020. This shift may stem from dissatisfaction with the economic performance under Biden.

Perspectives on Harris

When directly asked about Harris replacing Biden, opinions were mixed: 34% see it as a positive change, while 35% anticipate negative impacts. A significant 55% believe Biden's presidency hurts Harris’s election chances. The current economy's state also deeply influences investor outlook on her candidacy.

Sectors and Investment Opportunities

According to investors, the oil and gas sector stands to benefit most from a Trump victory, with 71% anticipating strong performance in that area. Conversely, a Harris win could favor renewable energy (52%) and electric vehicles (47%).

Monteiro remarks, "Although each candidate may favor different sectors, the outlook for the S&P 500 should remain optimistic post-election, given steady corporate profitability."

Battleground States

In crucial battleground states, opinions vary:
– Arizona: Trump 53%; Harris 47%
– Florida: Trump 68%; Harris 19%
– Georgia: Trump 58%; Harris 17%
– Pennsylvania: Trump 60%; Harris 13%.

Ultimately, investors believe that the election will have a significant and multifaceted impact on the economy, regardless of the outcome on November 5.