Will Bitcoin Stay Above $100,000 in July?

Bitcoin holders are betting on the world’s largest cryptocurrency maintaining its six-figure status, with prediction markets indicating a surge of optimism despite concerning technical signals.

Currently trading just below $108,000, Bitcoin is about 8% above the crucial $100,000 level. On Myriad, a prediction market by Decrypt‘s parent company Dastan, the question “Will BTC stay above $100K throughout July?” has attracted $12.4K in trading volume with a bullish tilt. Traders have increased the odds of Bitcoin maintaining $100K from 50-50 on July 4 to 64.5% just three days later.

This optimism exists even though Bitcoin must avoid falling below $100K at any point during July to keep the market resolving as “Yes.” If Bitcoin dips even to $99,999, the prediction market resolves as “No,” making it a strict test of support strength.

Bitcoin: The $100K Threshold

Bitcoin has traded above $100,000 since early May, making this level key psychological support. If Bitcoin breaches this level, even momentarily, it could trigger cascading sell orders—spurring traders to shift from bull to bear markets. Maintaining this level could bolster it as robust support for another attempt at setting new all-time highs.

While optimistic market participants lean bullish, technical indicators suggest challenges ahead. The Average Directional Index (ADX) reading is 10-17 across timeframes, well below the trend-confirming threshold of 25. This low reading shows Bitcoin is drifting and highly susceptible to sudden movements.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows “on” status on daily and 4-hour charts, indicating potential explosive price movements of 5-10%. With only an 8.4% cushion to $100K, a downtrend could easily break this support.

Also, a descending trend line from April highs caps rallies between $109-110K, increasing selling pressure with each rejection. Additionally, the Volume Profile Visible Range reveals significant accumulation between $97-104K, suggesting that low-ADX markets tend to gravitate towards these price levels.

Defense of the $100K Level

Bitcoin has numerous support zones defending against a drop below $100K. The first defense is at $107,200, supported by recent consolidations. Below that, the $104,000-$105,000 zone indicates substantial buying interest, while the psychological $102,000 level acts as a final buffer before hitting the critical $100K mark.

Despite bullish positioning, the current market testing upper channel boundaries means traders may be overly optimistic compared to available data. As we head towards August 1, there will be less distance between the $100K and upper channel levels, implying that sellers may find it easier to pull prices down than buyers to push them higher.

Conclusion

Can Bitcoin maintain its $100K price in July? Current data suggests it’s a close call. The lack of momentum and compressed volatility pose significant risks, but the multiple support levels provide a measure of defense for the critical $100K line.

The following weeks are crucial. The last time Bitcoin moved from the top to near $100K took just 11 days. If bullish momentum can push beyond $110,000, then $100K could become a safer support. Conversely, a drop below $107,000 would introduce real challenges, with $104,000 acting as a vital threshold.

Overall, it currently appears more likely that Bitcoin will stay above $100K for the remainder of the month, provided that all conditions remain unchanged.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed herein are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.