Bitcoin's Price Movements Amid Trump Speculation

Bitcoin’s price moved marginally on Monday after briefly hitting a three-month high amid increased speculation that Donald Trump will win the 2024 elections, bringing the token closer to record highs.

Recent Trends

The world’s largest cryptocurrency surged over the past week as polls and prediction markets indicated a greater likelihood of a Trump victory, although analysts deemed the race too close to call.

As of 09:10 ET (13:10 GMT), Bitcoin slipped 0.2% to $68,219.00, remaining about $5000 shy of its record high. Crossing the $70,000 mark is perceived as a crucial bullish indicator for Bitcoin.

Trump Bets Boost Bitcoin

Recent polls and prediction markets indicated rising odds for a Trump victory over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. The crypto prediction market Polymarket cited a 60.7% chance for Trump and a 39.1% chance for Harris.

Trump is known for his pro-crypto campaign, promising to advance Bitcoin in the United States; his campaign also accepts crypto donations.

Traders speculate on favorable crypto regulations under a potential Trump administration—which has been a significant point of contention amid several high-profile lawsuits from regulatory bodies in recent years. Although Harris also mentioned a regulatory framework for crypto, details remain unclear.

With just over two weeks until the election, markets continue to prepare for a tightly contested presidential race, prompting investors to lean towards safe havens like the dollar and gold, the latter achieving a record high on Monday.

Recent capital flows data reveals that institutional investors have resumed cryptocurrency buying over the past week.

Bernstein Analysts Recommend Buying Bitcoin

Analysts from Bernstein are advising investors to take long positions in Bitcoin through ETFs or Bitcoin-related equities, as the cryptocurrency seeks to break through resistance ahead of the U.S. elections.

The analysts noted, “Bitcoin is trying to break out of the $70K resistance and, like other risk-on markets, interprets rising Trump odds as bullish for crypto.” They also mentioned that supportive policy from the Harris campaign has alleviated some downside concerns.

“Bitcoin ETF inflows, crypto equity markets, and retail trading sentiment are all indicating ‘risk-on’,” they added.

In the past week, Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $2 billion, bringing total year-to-date inflows to $20.5 billion, with assets under management exceeding $63 billion. Bernstein believes these inflows are driving demand in Bitcoin's spot markets as asset managers adjust their strategies towards wealth advisors and warehouses.

Crypto Prices Rise

Following Bitcoin's gains, broader cryptocurrency prices also increased on Monday as sentiment toward the sector improved.

Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest crypto, rose 1.7% to $2,694.72, nearing a two-month high.

Other cryptocurrencies such as SOL and ADA climbed more than 4% and 2%, respectively, while XRP added 2% and MATIC rose around 1%. Notably, among meme coins, DOGE experienced a rise of over 4%.

Ambar Warrick contributed to this report.