Hayes Warns of BTC Decline

Hayes warned that BTC could drop further as CME Futures yield declines.
But Chris Burniske believed this was a typical mid-bull run reset, not a cycle top.

Bitcoin (BTC) has retested its range-lows of $91K for the fourth time in 2025, extending its losses to 16% from the record high of $109.5K in January.

Even so, BTC troubles could be far from over, according to Arthur Hayes, Founder of BitMEX and CIO at crypto fund Maelstrom.

What’s Next for BTC?

In a recent X (formerly Twitter) post, Hayes claimed that BTC could drop to $70K due to unattractive CME Futures ‘yield’, which could prompt unwinding by large funds.

Hayes shared a chart indicating that the current short-term U.S. treasuries were yielding 4.3%. However, the BTC CME basis has declined post-U.S. elections, and the ETH CME trade offered comparatively outsized returns.

Last week, K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde noted that the CME BTC Futures basis (monthly) had dropped to pre-bull market levels seen in late 2023.

For those unfamiliar, the Futures basis is the difference between the BTC Futures and spot index prices. A high positive number suggests bullish sentiment, while a declining or negative number indicates muted or negative sentiment.

However, Bitfinex analysts linked BTC woes to macro uncertainty, which affected the U.S. equity market, too.

> “The downturn has been exacerbated by macro-driven uncertainty, as well as Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with traditional markets.”

The analysts added that the S&P 500 faltering dampened risk appetite across the board, including BTC.

Amid the fears and sell-off, Chris Burniske, a partner at crypto VC Placeholder, maintained that the pullback was a typical mid-bull run reset seen in 2021. He stated,

> “In the middle of 2021, $BTC drew down 56%…You can come up with all the reasons for why this cycle is different, but the mid-bull reset we’re going through isn’t unprecedented.”

From a fundamental perspective, BTC’s overheated levels above 2 on the Market Value to Realized Value ratio (MVRV) resemble a pattern from the early 2024 local top.

If history repeats, a cycle top could be observed if the MVRV taps 3.

However, losing the $91K-$90K support held for the past three months would change the market structure for the king-coin.