U.S. Energy Consumption Forecast

By Scott DiSavino

(Reuters) – The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts record high power consumption in 2024 and 2025.

EIA projected that power demand will reach:
– 4,086 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024
– 4,165 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025

These figures represent an increase from the 2023 usage of 4,012 billion kWh, and surpass the previous record of 4,067 billion kWh in 2022.

Factors driving this rise include growing demands from artificial intelligence, data centers, and increasing electricity usage for heating and transportation. The EIA forecasts power sales distribution as follows:
– 1,494 billion kWh for residential consumers
– 1,420 billion kWh for commercial customers
– 1,026 billion kWh for industrial customers

Comparatively, previous records were:
– 1,509 billion kWh for residential consumers in 2022
– 1,408 billion kWh for commercial customers in 2023
– 1,064 billion kWh for industrial customers in 2000

The EIA also forecasts changes in energy sources for power generation:
– Natural gas share is expected to rise from 42% in 2023 to 43% in 2024, then decrease to 40% in 2025.
– Coal's share will decline from 17% in 2023 to 15% in 2024 and 2025.
– Renewable generation will increase from 22% in 2023 to 23% in 2024 and 25% in 2025.
– Nuclear power's share remains steady at 19% for 2024 and 2025.

Projected gas sales for 2024 are as follows:
– 12.1 billion cubic feet per day for residential consumers
– 9.1 bcfd for commercial customers
– 23.3 bcfd for industrial customers
– 37.0 bcfd for power generation

Historical highs include:
– 14.3 bcfd in 1996 for residential consumers
– 9.6 bcfd in 2019 for commercial customers
– 23.8 bcfd in 1973 for industrial customers
– 35.5 bcfd in 2023 for power generation.