Economic Outlook for 2025
Uncertainties around U.S. policies may modestly slow global economic growth in 2025, say major brokerages. They expect President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs to cause volatility across global markets, increase inflationary pressures, and restrict central banks' ability to ease monetary policy.
Global Economic Growth
World economies and equity markets have exhibited strong performance, with global growth projected at 3.1% in 2023, according to an October Reuters poll.
Forecasts from Major Brokerages
Predictions for stocks, currencies, and bonds for 2025:
| Brokerage | S&P 500 Target | U.S. 10-Year Yield | EUR/USD Target | USD/JPY Target | USD/CNY Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS Global Research | 6400 | 3.80% | 1.04 | 145 | 7.60 |
| Goldman Sachs | 6500 | 4.25% | 1.03 | 159 | 7.50 |
| Wells Fargo Investment | 6500-6700 | 4.50%-5.00% | 0.98-1.02 | 158-162 | – |
| Deutsche Bank | 7000 | 4.7% (Q4'25) | 1.03 (Q4'25) | 7.50 | – |
| J.P. Morgan | 6500 | 4.10% (Q3'25) | 1.08 | 148 | 7.50 |
| BofA Global Research | 6666 | 4.25% | 1.10 | 160 | 7.40 |
U.S. Inflation Predictions
Projected U.S. inflation for 2025:
| Brokerage | Headline CPI | Core PCE |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| J.P. Morgan | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| Barclays | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| Wells Fargo | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| Deutsche Bank | 2.8% | 2.6% |
Real GDP Growth Estimates
Projected growth for major economies in 2025:
| Brokerage | Global GDP | U.S. GDP | China GDP | Euro Area GDP | UK GDP | India GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS Global | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 6.3% |
| Barclays | 3.0% | 2.1% | 4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 7.2% |
| J.P. Morgan | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 6.0% |
Note: UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct divisions within the UBS Group. Also, Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank.
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