Trump 2024 Presidential Election Speculation
As the 2024 presidential election draws nearer, speculation is mounting regarding the potential of a second Trump term.
Nomura reported that while Vice President Kamala Harris currently appears to be the slight frontrunner, a Trump victory is still seen as a strong possibility.
In light of this, Nomura conducted a survey among its clients to gauge their expectations for a Trump 2.0 presidency and its impact on U.S. policies, economies, and global markets.
Key Findings from Nomura’s Survey
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Tariff Policy:
- Investors anticipate that Trump’s approach to tariffs would be more restrained than his rhetoric suggests.
- 60% believe that although Trump will likely raise tariffs, the increases will be less severe than the proposed 60% on China and 10% on the rest of the world.
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Tax Policy:
- Tax policy under Trump is expected to continue along the lines of his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
- Nearly half of the respondents (44%) expect Trump to fully extend these tax cuts, with another 23% anticipating additional tax cuts.
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Immigration Policy:
- The survey revealed that most investors (41%) predict a sharp limitation on illegal immigration without mass deportations, while a close 37% expect stringent immigration controls and active deportations.
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Foreign Policy:
- 25% of respondents believe Trump might withdraw the U.S. from NATO, while 59% think he will demand that some allies pay for U.S. defense protection.
Economic Concerns
Nomura’s survey reflects concerns about higher inflation, a larger fiscal deficit, and increased geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like the Middle East, Russia, and Ukraine.
Despite these potential risks, 57% of respondents expect higher GDP growth under Trump 2.0, indicating a complex and multifaceted outlook for the U.S. economy and global relations.
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