Trump's Promises to the Crypto Community

Presidential candidate Donald Trump made two promises core to the crypto audience in the run-up to the U.S. Election: he will free Ross Ulbricht and fire Gary Gensler.

A Commitment to Crypto

It started in May when Trump touched briefly on crypto policy during a speech, pledging to support the crypto industry and to commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht "on day one." This was something he reportedly considered at the end of his Presidential term but did not carry out. Trump's pledge, which led to chants of "Free Ross" from the audience, is a favorite cause among Libertarian Party members.

Ulbricht is currently serving a life sentence without the possibility of parole for his role in creating and operating the dark web marketplace Silk Road, a site integrally tied to Bitcoin's early history.

> “Last night, Donald Trump pledged to commute my sentence on day 1, if reelected. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. After 11 years in prison, it is hard to express how I feel at this moment. It is thanks to your undying support that I may get a second chance,” posted Ulbricht on X at the time.

Trump repeated the pledge at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville in July, along with several other promises directed at the crypto crowd in attendance. Chief among them was his pledge to fire U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler on day one if elected.

The pledge received such a positive reception that Trump noted he didn’t realize Gensler was that unpopular and made sure to repeat it. The reason it was well-received was due to the SEC’s lawsuits against many successful crypto businesses, undermining confidence in the agency.

Trump's Crypto Involvement

Trump's recent moves have positioned him even further against Gensler and the SEC. He has endorsed a crypto project called World Liberty Financial, which aims to provide DeFi lending and borrowing services and eventually move into tokenized real estate.

The project recently opened a token sale aiming to raise $300 million — a target it has fallen far short of — being limited in the U.S. to accredited investors.

> “Due to outdated policies and regulations in the US, one whitelist is limited to accredited US investors and another for all non-US persons. We’re fighting for changes so all Americans can access World Liberty Financial and join the financial revolution,” the project noted.

As a result, Trump not only wants to remove Gensler to garner votes but is directly invested in a project that could greatly benefit from more favorable crypto regulation. He has also expressed a desire for Bitcoin to be mined in the U.S. rather than China, suggesting an overall embrace of crypto. Many in the crypto community believe a Trump victory would be beneficial for the sector in the short term.

However, while Trump has made a variety of promises, he has a mixed record on keeping them. A BBC report found that he fulfilled some promises, including tax cuts and military spending, while partially delivering on others like trade deals. He notably failed to deliver on promises regarding the national debt and deporting illegal immigrants.

That said, uncertainty remains regarding whether Trump will follow through on his crypto promises, compared to what a Democratic victory would mean for the sector.

What a Kamala Harris Win Would Mean for Crypto

In June, it was revealed that the Biden campaign was in talks with crypto exchange Coinbase regarding crypto donations. By early September, it was confirmed that Future Forward PAC would be accepting crypto donations via Coinbase Commerce on behalf of the Kamala Harris presidential campaign.

Harris made her first public statement about crypto later in September, expressing support for blockchain investments under her leadership. In October, more details were provided as part of a plan aimed at benefiting Black men.

> "Vice President Harris appreciates the ways in which new technologies can broaden access to banking and financial services. She will ensure owners and investors in digital assets benefit from a regulatory framework, so that Black men and others participating in this market are protected."

Although Harris’s plans are more vague than Trump’s, they indicate some support for crypto and could positively impact the sector. Yet uncertainty remains about the extent of the benefits.

Trump’s clearer stance has resulted in higher expectations, with Bernstein forecasting that his leadership could see Bitcoin’s price rise to the $80,000 to $90,000 range. In contrast, they have much lower expectations for a Harris win, estimating Bitcoin’s price could fall to $50,000.

Analysts suggest that crypto will benefit regardless of who wins the election. “I’m increasingly of the view that, generally speaking, crypto wins no matter what happens in November,” Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told The Block in October. “That said, the election still matters,” he added. “There is more uncertainty around what a Harris administration would mean for crypto than a Trump administration, and markets dislike uncertainty.” Investors may want to see potential leadership changes at key regulatory agencies under a Harris administration before making judgments, and this uncertainty could dampen crypto markets until resolved.

With the world’s eyes on the election, those in the crypto industry will watch closely, as it could significantly impact prices and the industry’s growth over the coming years. But perhaps nobody will be watching more closely than Ulbricht and Gensler.