Apple Q4 2024 Earnings Report Preview

Investing.com — Apple is set to report its fiscal Q4 2024 earnings on October 31, with Bernstein analysts providing a cautious outlook.

While the Q4 data points appear "relatively healthy" and the weaker dollar offers a favorable currency tailwind, Bernstein warns that Apple's outlook may not generate bullish sentiment.

> Key Insights from Bernstein:
> – There is a ~60% probability that Apple will guide in line, but a ~35% chance that it will guide down, and less than 10% for an upward revision.
> – Concerns include flat iPhone revenues and delays in Apple Intelligence rollout.

Current consensus predicts iPhone revenues to increase by 65% sequentially in Q1 (Apple's December quarter), yet Bernstein highlights this is still below historical averages.

They stated, "Channel fill will likely be in line to above historic levels in Q4," indicating that much demand might already be accounted for.

Bernstein has slightly raised its Q4 estimates, now slightly above consensus, but has reduced its FY 2025 forecasts due to weaker data for the iPhone 16.

> iPhone Revenue Forecast:
> – Anticipated growth of 5.6% for iPhone revenues, with unit sales around 246 million (+5.5%).

The analysts also suggest that the iPhone 16 cycle may be "more backloaded," pushing upgrades to next year. Although there is potential for growth from the iPhone 17 cycle and AI-driven upgrades, they caution that Apple stock often stabilizes in the months following a new iPhone launch.

Bernstein concludes with, "Following a strong run, we see current risk-reward on AAPL as in balance," maintaining an "Outperform" rating with a target price of $240.